Sunday, April 24, 2011
The View from Scandinavia
Scandinavian Defense Union
Intelligence Bulletin # 13
September 18th, 1946
NATO and Russian OOB:
During the opening weeks of the invasion we believe the NATO nations lost something like 30 divisions destroyed or surrendered. Our best estimates put the breakdown of those divisions at; 8 British divisions, 10 American divisions, and 12 French divisions. We also know that a number of British and French troops were successfully pulled out by sea from the north of France. While a solid group of American divisions managed to pull back through France to Spain.
On the Russian side we know that they took light loses in the opening weeks of the invasion of Germany. But they took heavy losses during battle near the French coast. We believe they lost something close to 14 divisions during those battles. From American intelligence reports we believe the Russians continued the advance into southern France with another 125 divisions.
As of now the front seems to have stabilized on the Spanish border. But interestingly, so far it seems that the forces holding that line are mainly Spanish, Portuguese, North African French, and then a mix of odds and ends for the rest of the smaller NATO nations. The question is where are the large numbers of new American, British and Canadian units?
During the last war we know that the 3 major NATO nations combined were able to field close to 100 infantry divisions, and 30 armored divisions. From NATO meetings we have a good idea of the mobilization plans for this war, but given the world situation we are deeply concerned with their ability to meet those goals.
From what we have found the British field 6 infantry divisions, 4 armored divisions, 1 airborne division, 3 independent armored brigades, and 9 independent tank battalions. The question is with unrest in India, the Middle East, and Africa can those units be available to fight the Russians? The Canadians have so far raised 3 infantry divisions, 2 armored divisions, and an airborne brigade. The Australians and New Zealanders are fielding 4 infantry divisions, and 2 armored brigades. Due to the native upraising and political change the South Africans claim they will not be able to deploy any of their troops out of southern Africa for the time being.
The Americans plan to field 70 infantry divisions, 5 airborne divisions, 6 marine divisions, 2 mountain divisions, and 18 armored divisions.
By 1945 we know the Russians fielded something close to 350 infantry divisions, 120 Guards infantry divisions, and 50 cavalry divisions. They also fielded 24 tank and 13 mechanized corps, and 30 independent tank brigades. By the end of the last war most of those divisions/corps/brigades were not at full strength. From reports we have received at the end of the Second World War the average non Guards infantry division had anywhere from 6000 to 8000 personnel, the average guards infantry divisions 10000 to 14000 personnel. The tank/mechanized Corps were really division sized formations, and the tank brigades were regiment size.
From NATO reports we know that the Russians have so far not moved any of the 90 divisions that are occupying Manchuria, Korea, and Sakhalin/Kuril islands. But NATO also is unable to tell us at what strength those units are at. From NATO reports we know that the units that attacked into Germany were at full strength. That was also true for the units that attacked Finland. The question is how did the Russians managed to bring so many units up to full strength so quickly? Did they disband or merge under strength divisions? Did they strip their borders in other areas?